Deciphering supply-demand mismatch and influencing mechanisms of cropland multifunction in China: Toward targeted spatial governance

Abstract

The imbalance between the supply and demand of cropland multifunction has emerged as a key challenge for the sustainable use of cropland in high-density population areas globally. However, current research mainly focuses on supply-side mechanisms and lacks a systematic analysis of the spatial relationships and factors influencing the supply-demand matching of cropland multifunction, thereby constraining decision-making for managing multifunctional mismatches. To solve these problems, this study constructs an integrated framework of "supply-demand matching - process response - zoning management," combining the eXtreme gradient boosting, Shapley additive exPlanations for interpretability, to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of cropland multifunction supply-demand relationships in China. Based on the clustering of self-organizing maps, spatially adaptive governance strategies are proposed. Results show that: (1) Cropland multifunctional supply-demand presents significant spatial mismatches, with most regions showing supply surpluses; 47.9 %, 54.9 %, and 75.9 % of areas exceed demand in production, ecological, and landscape-cultural functions, respectively, while 52.4 % of areas exhibit deficits in social security functions. (2) Factors influencing supply-demand matching vary markedly among different cropland functions, with population size and economic development accounting for 21 %–39 % and showing pronounced nonlinear effects. (3) Eight cropland functional clusters are identified, supporting targeted governance strategies such as cross-regional resource coordination, ecological compensation, and urban-rural cultural integration. This study highlights the importance of considering spatial relationships and influencing factors in spatial policy formulation, offering recommendations for optimizing cropland resource allocation and promoting sustainable management.