Cycles on dengue incidence and mortality: Evaluating data from the global burden of diseases.

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease with four serotypes, manifesting as an acute febrile illness with potentially severe complications. While its temporal trends are well studied, the cyclical nature of its incidence and mortality remains underexplored. This ecological study analysed dengue incidence (1990-2021) and mortality (1980-2021) using global burden of disease data. Time series analysis, employing fast Fourier transform and harmonic regression, identified significant cyclical patterns. Dengue incidence and mortality exhibit marked cyclical behaviour, with regional periodicity ranging from ∼17 to 30 years. These patterns suggest that long-term environmental and socio-epidemiological factors drive predictable waves of transmission and severity. This finding underlines the need for tailored surveillance and intervention strategies to mitigate dengue outbreaks and fatalities.