Predictive Value of ECG Ischemic Pattern Changes for the 10-Year Occurrence of Ischemic Heart Disease

IF 1.1 4区 医学 Q4 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS
Sara Saffar Soflaei, Malihehsadat Abedsaeidi, Eisa Nazar, Naeimeh Varasteh, Alireza Kooshki, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Farima Farsi, Habibollah Esmaily, Mohsen Moohebati, Gordon A. Ferns, Mahmoud Ebrahimi, Majid Ghayour-Mobarhan
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Abstract

Background

The long-term prognostic value of resting electrocardiogram (ECG) in the prediction of ischemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and mortality in the asymptomatic middle-aged population is not well characterized. This study was designed to assess the prognostic value of major and minor ischemic changes in ECG as a potential screening tool in healthy adults.

Methods

A total of 9035 middle-aged subjects with available ECGs were recruited. ECG ischemia was classified using the Minnesota Coding system. All the participants were followed up regarding the occurrence of IHD over 10 years. A cardiologist confirmed IHD, and additional tests were performed if indicated. Multiple logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds of ischemic changes in ECG to predict the occurrence of IHD. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered significant.

Results

Among 9035 participants, 1225 (13.6%) had major ischemic changes and 1088 (12.0%) had minor ischemic changes. After a 10-year follow-up, 747 (8.3%) were confirmed with IHD (124 had died and 623 survived). IHD was more prevalent among men, older people, smokers, and retired subjects (p < 0.001). Both major and minor ischemic changes were significantly higher in participants with IHD (p = 0.001), while only major ischemic changes were associated with IHD-cause mortality (p = 0.004). These relationships remained significant after adjustment for confounding factors.

Conclusion

Both minor and major isolated abnormalities in ECG are associated with an increased risk of long-term IHD incidence in the middle-aged population, while only combined major ischemia increases the odds of death caused by IHD.

Abstract Image

心电图缺血型改变对缺血性心脏病10年发生的预测价值。
背景:静息心电图(ECG)在无症状中年人群中预测缺血性心脏病(IHD)发病率和死亡率的长期预后价值尚不明确。本研究旨在评估心电图主要和次要缺血性改变作为健康成人潜在筛查工具的预后价值。方法:共招募有心电图的中年受试者9035例。采用明尼苏达编码系统对ECG缺血进行分类。对所有参与者进行了10年的IHD发生情况的随访。一位心脏病专家证实了IHD,如果有必要,还进行了额外的检查。应用多元logistic回归估计心电图缺血性改变的几率,预测IHD的发生。p值小于0.05被认为是显著的。结果:9035名参与者中,1225人(13.6%)有主要的缺血性改变,1088人(12.0%)有轻微的缺血性改变。经过10年随访,747例(8.3%)确诊为IHD(124例死亡,623例存活)。IHD在男性、老年人、吸烟者和退休人群中更为普遍(p结论:在中年人群中,心电图的轻微和严重孤立异常都与IHD长期发病率增加有关,而只有合并严重缺血才会增加IHD引起的死亡几率。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
88
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The ANNALS OF NONINVASIVE ELECTROCARDIOLOGY (A.N.E) is an online only journal that incorporates ongoing advances in the clinical application and technology of traditional and new ECG-based techniques in the diagnosis and treatment of cardiac patients. ANE is the first journal in an evolving subspecialty that incorporates ongoing advances in the clinical application and technology of traditional and new ECG-based techniques in the diagnosis and treatment of cardiac patients. The publication includes topics related to 12-lead, exercise and high-resolution electrocardiography, arrhythmias, ischemia, repolarization phenomena, heart rate variability, circadian rhythms, bioengineering technology, signal-averaged ECGs, T-wave alternans and automatic external defibrillation. ANE publishes peer-reviewed articles of interest to clinicians and researchers in the field of noninvasive electrocardiology. Original research, clinical studies, state-of-the-art reviews, case reports, technical notes, and letters to the editors will be published to meet future demands in this field.
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