Chunhong Li, Weiping Wang, Albert Solé-Ribalta, Javier Borge-Holthoefer, Bin Jia, Zhiyuan Liu, Bin Yu, Ziyou Gao, Jianxi Gao
{"title":"Adaptive capacity for multimodal transport network resilience to extreme floods","authors":"Chunhong Li, Weiping Wang, Albert Solé-Ribalta, Javier Borge-Holthoefer, Bin Jia, Zhiyuan Liu, Bin Yu, Ziyou Gao, Jianxi Gao","doi":"10.1038/s41893-025-01575-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"As extreme weather events enhanced by climate change pose challenges to the resilience of critical infrastructure, the ability to handle disruptions, avoid tipping points, adapt and transform in crises becomes essential. Despite advances in resilience research, there is a need to improve empirical evidence and mathematical models to quantify the systems’ adaptive capabilities to extreme climate-related phenomena, such as floods. This research fills this gap by integrating an agent-based multimodal traffic functional model with a compound failure model to provide valuable insights into adaptation patterns (that is, mode shift and route switching) and risk mitigation in response to flood-related disruptions. The proposed modelling approach not only quantifies the recovery and adaptive capacity against failures, going beyond traditional resilience analyses, but also unveils the key factors that drive adaptation of transportation to flood-induced disasters. These factors include variations in trip demand and network density, which together reveal a universal law of mode shift. The study provides valuable insights into the design of resilient and sustainable critical infrastructure systems, such as transportation, energy and communication systems capable of withstanding severe flood events while maintaining their functionality. Extreme weather events will require resilient and adaptive critical infrastructure. This study models adaptive transitions in collective travel behaviour during flood events across different cities to quantify recovery and adaptive learning from failures and reveal adaptation drivers.","PeriodicalId":19056,"journal":{"name":"Nature Sustainability","volume":"8 7","pages":"741-752"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Sustainability","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01575-z","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
As extreme weather events enhanced by climate change pose challenges to the resilience of critical infrastructure, the ability to handle disruptions, avoid tipping points, adapt and transform in crises becomes essential. Despite advances in resilience research, there is a need to improve empirical evidence and mathematical models to quantify the systems’ adaptive capabilities to extreme climate-related phenomena, such as floods. This research fills this gap by integrating an agent-based multimodal traffic functional model with a compound failure model to provide valuable insights into adaptation patterns (that is, mode shift and route switching) and risk mitigation in response to flood-related disruptions. The proposed modelling approach not only quantifies the recovery and adaptive capacity against failures, going beyond traditional resilience analyses, but also unveils the key factors that drive adaptation of transportation to flood-induced disasters. These factors include variations in trip demand and network density, which together reveal a universal law of mode shift. The study provides valuable insights into the design of resilient and sustainable critical infrastructure systems, such as transportation, energy and communication systems capable of withstanding severe flood events while maintaining their functionality. Extreme weather events will require resilient and adaptive critical infrastructure. This study models adaptive transitions in collective travel behaviour during flood events across different cities to quantify recovery and adaptive learning from failures and reveal adaptation drivers.
期刊介绍:
Nature Sustainability aims to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogues and bring together research fields that contribute to understanding how we organize our lives in a finite world and the impacts of our actions.
Nature Sustainability will not only publish fundamental research but also significant investigations into policies and solutions for ensuring human well-being now and in the future.Its ultimate goal is to address the greatest challenges of our time.