The unrealized potential of agroforestry for an emissions-intensive agricultural commodity

Abstract

Reconciling agricultural production with climate change mitigation is a formidable sustainability problem. Retaining trees in agricultural systems is one proposed solution, but the magnitude of the current and future potential benefit that trees contribute to climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Here we help to resolve these issues across a West African region that produces ~60% of the world’s cocoa, a crop contributing one of the highest carbon footprints of all foods. Using machine learning, we mapped shade-tree cover and carbon stocks across the region and found that the existing average shade-tree cover is low (~13%) and poorly aligned with climate threats. Yet, increasing shade-tree cover to a minimum of 30% could sequester an additional 307 MtCO2e, enough to offset ~167% of contemporary cocoa-related emissions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—without reducing production. Our approach is transferable to other shade-grown crops and aligns with emerging carbon market and sustainability reporting frameworks. Western Africa is one of the world’s largest cocoa-producing regions, with just two countries supplying up to 60% of global production, but at a high carbon cost. Incorporating shade trees into cocoa farms offsets the industry’s carbon cost, but existing coverage is low. Expanding coverage could substantially boost carbon stocks without reducing yield.