Trading off regional and overall energy system design flexibility in the net-zero transition

Abstract

The transition to net-zero emissions in Europe is determined by a patchwork of country-level and European Union-wide policy, creating coordination challenges in an interconnected system. Here we use an optimization model to map out near-optimal energy system designs for 2050, focusing on the planning flexibility of individual regions while maintaining overall system robustness against different weather years, cost assumptions and land-use limitations. Our results reveal extensive flexibility at a regional level, where only few technologies (solar around the Adriatic and wind on the British Isles and in Germany) cannot be substituted. National policymakers can influence renewable energy export and hydrogen strategies significantly, provided they coordinate this with the remaining European system. However, stronger commitment to solar in southern Europe and Germany unlocks more design options for Europe overall. These results on regional trade-offs facilitate more meaningful policy discussions that are crucial in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Transitioning to a net-zero future requires several energy-related interventions by a variety of actors across scales. Modelling results now show that, considering critical trade-offs and uncertainties, there is significant spatial flexibility in how the European energy system can be designed to achieve carbon neutrality.