Planning passafeguard in conflict zones and assessment of public transport stop accessibility to shelters

Abstract

This study investigates the adaptation of urban mobility in Kharkiv, Ukraine, focusing on assessing passenger safety near public transport stops and accessibility to protective shelters. In response to the ongoing threat from missiles, drones, and artillery, we developed a unique methodology to evaluate the “passafeguard” level at various transit stops across the city. Using PTV VISUM software, we conducted spatial–temporal analyses that consider different types of threats, directly impacting the time available for passengers to reach safety. Isochrones were constructed for three time intervals (2, 5, and 15 min) based on threat types (e.g., Ballistic, S‑300; Cruise missile; Strike Drones) to identify shelter accessibility. Our system analysis includes a variety of shelter types: metro stations, basements, and specially designed concrete shelters at transit stops. We assessed passenger safety in distinct Transport Analysis Zones (TAZs) across different scenarios: pre-invasion, invasion, power available, and blackout (temporary routes), which affect the availability of electric transport options. Key metrics calculated include density by shelter types in proximity to the stops, coverage area of shelters, and stops lacking shelter proximity. This study highlights current shortcomings in Kharkiv’s public transport stops accessibility to shelters and provides a method to assess it across other cities facing similar challenges. It leads to specific recommendations for optimising shelter locations to improve accessibility. The quadrant-based classification system enables diagnosis of mismatched infrastructure zones (e.g., high-transit but low-shelter coverage), informing targeted interventions. By conceptualising transit stops as critical nodes in civil protection planning, the passafeguard concept offers a transferable methodology for enhancing urban resilience. Research provides broader discourse on transportation infrastructure safety, emergency response in urban conflict environments, urban mobility adaptive protection strategies and passenger safety, offering data-driven insights and actionable recommendations for policy-makers and urban planners globally.