Improving electricity demand growth estimation in rural mini-grids through data-driven appliance diffusion modeling

IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Leticia Tomas Fillol , Nicolò Stevanato , Antti Pinomaa , Riccardo Mereu , Samuli Honkapuro
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate load modeling is crucial for designing reliable and cost-effective mini-grids in rural, under-served communities accessing electricity for the first time. Current models often fail to capture the evolving energy demands associated with changes in appliance ownership and socio-economic growth. The study introduces a bottom-up, adaptable model that forecasts a progressive appliance adoption and customer base in order to improve long-term electricity demand estimations. This study employs real-world appliance adoption trends from rural Kenya as a case study and uses logistic diffusion and optimization techniques to model appliance diffusion. The findings highlight significant variability in appliance adoption rates already during the first years of electricity access between different household groups, identified through clustering algorithms. This variability underscores the need for dynamic modeling over traditional static categorization of end users to more accurately reflect evolving consumer energy consumption profiles. The proposed model serves as a tool to enhance multiyear load profile generation and support microgrid design in similar settings.
基于数据驱动的家电扩散模型改进农村微电网电力需求增长估算
准确的负荷建模对于设计可靠和具有成本效益的微型电网至关重要,在农村,服务不足的社区首次获得电力。目前的模型往往无法捕捉到与家电所有权变化和社会经济增长相关的不断变化的能源需求。该研究引入了一个自下而上、适应性强的模型,该模型预测了逐步采用的电器和客户群,以改善长期电力需求估计。本研究以肯亚农村的实际家电采用趋势为个案研究,并使用物流扩散和优化技术来模拟家电扩散。研究结果强调,通过聚类算法确定,在电力接入的头几年,不同家庭群体之间的电器采用率已经存在显著差异。这种可变性强调了对最终用户的传统静态分类进行动态建模的必要性,以便更准确地反映不断变化的消费者能源消耗概况。所提出的模型可以作为一种工具来增强多年负荷分布的生成,并支持类似环境下的微电网设计。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Energy for Sustainable Development
Energy for Sustainable Development ENERGY & FUELS-ENERGY & FUELS
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
9.10%
发文量
187
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the International Energy Initiative, Energy for Sustainable Development is the journal for decision makers, managers, consultants, policy makers, planners and researchers in both government and non-government organizations. It publishes original research and reviews about energy in developing countries, sustainable development, energy resources, technologies, policies and interactions.
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