Impact of land-use changes on the increase in extreme precipitation events in the Lake Victoria Basin

IF 6.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Joan Birungi , Jinhua Yu , Emmanuel Yeboah , Philemon Henry King'uza , Kazora Jonah
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Abstract

This research investigates the impact of land use and land cover changes on extreme rainfall events in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), a region undergoing significant environmental changes. Understanding these influences is crucial for effective land use planning and climate adaptation. The study addresses a knowledge gap by examining how future land cover changes will affect the frequency, intensity, and distribution of extreme rainfall. A multidisciplinary approach combines remote sensing, climate modeling, and hydrological analysis, utilizing Landsat satellite imagery to track historical land use and climate data from CMIP6, CHIRPS, and ERA5. Focusing on the period from 1995 to 2099, the study predicts a 14 % decrease in forest cover and a 7 % to 25 % increase in urbanization. These changes are expected to significantly impact local climate, with a projected 20 % increase in annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) by 2099. Additionally, heavy rainfall days (R10mm) may increase by 5 to 40 days per year, peaking around 2084, 2090, and 2095. The study also forecasts an increase in CDD ranging from 20 to 80 days, emphasizing the need for integrating land management strategies into climate adaptation plans to enhance resilience against future extremes.
土地利用变化对维多利亚湖流域极端降水事件增加的影响
研究了维多利亚湖流域土地利用和土地覆被变化对极端降雨事件的影响。了解这些影响对于有效的土地利用规划和气候适应至关重要。该研究通过考察未来土地覆盖变化将如何影响极端降雨的频率、强度和分布,解决了一个知识缺口。多学科方法结合遥感、气候模拟和水文分析,利用Landsat卫星图像跟踪CMIP6、CHIRPS和ERA5的历史土地利用和气候数据。该研究将重点放在1995年至2099年期间,预测森林覆盖率将减少14%,城市化将增加7%至25%。预计这些变化将对当地气候产生重大影响,预计到2099年,年最大日降水量(Rx1day)将增加20%。此外,暴雨日数(R10mm)每年可能增加5 ~ 40天,在2084年、2090年和2095年左右达到峰值。该研究还预测,CDD将增加20至80天,强调需要将土地管理战略纳入气候适应计划,以增强对未来极端天气的抵御能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Urban Climate
Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies
CiteScore
9.70
自引率
9.40%
发文量
286
期刊介绍: Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]
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