Exploring the tsunami generation potential of major faults in the sicilian channel using 3D numerical modeling

Abstract

The Sicilian Channel, part of the central Mediterranean Sea, contains several active fault systems capable of generating tsunamis. Although historical evidence of major tsunami events exists in the region, few numerical studies have explored tsunami generation and coastal impact scenarios associated with these fault zones. This study employs 3D hydrodynamic modelling using Delft3D to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation resulting from three primary fault structures: the Gela Nappe Thrust Fault (GNTF), the Sciacca Strike-Slip Fault, and the Malta Graben Normal Fault (MGNF). The simulations indicate that tsunami wave heights along the southern coast of Sicily may reach up to 6 m, with inundation distances ranging from 23 to 144 m, depending on fault parameters and local bathymetric/topographic settings. These findings underscore the critical influence of regional bathymetry and fault source mechanisms in shaping tsunami behavior in semi-enclosed basins like the Sicilian Channel. This work contributes to the understanding of wave dynamics and coastal response in tectonically active marine environments, offering valuable insights for tsunami hazard assessment and early warning system planning.