Modeling the dual effects of safety information process loss and its application to Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident

Abstract

The loss of safety information during its flow may heighten accident risks and exacerbate accident consequences. To address this issue, this study examines safety information loss from a process perspective. The concept of safety information process loss is proposed, and a cheese model is constructed to explain its fundamental connotations and key features. Furthermore, a double helix structure of safety information process loss is introduced to model two core effects, the cascade amplification effect and the compensatory adjustment effect. Taking the Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident as a case study, the dual effects of safety information process loss are analyzed and validated based on Agent-Based Modeling. The results reveal significant cascade amplification effects and compensatory adjustment effects in the flow of safety information at both organizational and individual levels. The compensatory adjustment effect can partially mitigate information loss. This study provides a quantitative basis for safety information loss assessment and offers practical guidance for its prevention and control.