Spatio-Temporal Changes of Land Use Carbon Emission/Absorption and Its Future Trend in Important Ecological Functional Areas—A Case Study in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

This study proposes a novel perspective for calculating construction land carbon emissions based on functional zoning classification. Focusing on the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and utilizing Point of Interest (POI) data, we classified construction land into eight distinct functional types based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) from 2012 to 2022. Integrating this functional classification system with data from the China Carbon Accounting Database (CEADs), we established multiple linear regression models to achieve precise calculation of carbon emissions and absorption for each land use type. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was then employed to project land use patterns and associated carbon emissions and absorption for 2032 and 2042 under four development scenarios. The results showed that: (1) The developed functional classification framework effectively enables precise assessment of construction land carbon emissions. (2) While construction land emissions decrease by 2042 across all scenarios, being lowest under the Cropland Protection (CP) and highest under Ecological Protection (EP). Notably, the CP scenario uniquely promotes increased carbon absorption from both cropland and grassland. Forest carbon absorption grew consistently, while trends for grassland and unused land absorption differed by scenario. (3) Spatially, net carbon emissions (NCE) exhibit an “east-high, west-low” gradient at the provincial level, with Inner Mongolia and Northwestern Sichuan showing notable changes under specific scenarios. Significant structural shifts occurred at the city level, and even more pronounced sensitivity to scenarios was observed at the county/district level, where high-emission clusters concentrated in the mid-north alluvial plains and eastern urban agglomerations. This research provides: (i) a new functional zoning-based methodology for construction land carbon accounting, (ii) a comprehensive simulation framework integrating PLUS modeling and multi-scale carbon analysis under diverse futures. These contributions establish a vital foundation for informing ecological protection and achieving sustainable low-carbon development in the YRB and similar regions.