Late 21st-Century Climate and Land Use Driven Loss of Plant Diversity in African Mountains

Abstract

With the 1.5°C–5°C increase in global temperature projected for this century, many plant species are expected to shift their distribution ranges to track their environmental requirements. Across several mountain regions, responses to climate change like upslope shifts may result in accelerated rates of species turnover, species richness increases in upper montane belts, and amplified habitat losses. Yet, evidence of how such processes may influence plant diversity in Africa is still scarce. Here, using a species distribution modeling approach, we quantify and map how different scenarios of climatic and land-use changes may affect plant species ranges in African mountains. Using individually tuned models and dispersal buffers, we compared distribution losses and potential expansion through dispersal across 607 vascular plant species under three shared socioeconomic pathways for the end of the century. Our projections indicate that keeping warming under 2°C until 2100 under a sustainability scenario (SSP1.26), almost half (49.3%) of the species would experience a contraction in suitable areas, compared to 71%–75.6% in case these targets are not met (SSP3.70 and SSP5.85). Among these losses, mean contractions between 19% and 50.4% are predicted depending on the scenario. We project rates of upslope shifts that may be up to three times higher than the global calculated average. Contractions will be higher for species occurring at upper elevations, and trees and shrubs will show lower declines. Our findings align with previously reported trends of upslope shifts of species distributions but suggest that accelerated rates of change may limit the capacity of some species to track their niche based solely on their natural dispersal capacity. This implies that further efforts to improve habitat connectivity, restoration, and assisted migration may be necessary.