Assessing Vulnerability of Relevant Sites for Amphibian Conservation Through Spatiotemporal Analyses of Global Change Factors in Europe

Abstract

Amphibians are among the most imperiled vertebrates, threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Despite significant advances in our understanding of these species, there remains a critical gap in identifying the most urgent areas for conservation, especially considering their distinct taxonomic and conservation statuses. Here, we identified Relevant Sites for Amphibian Conservation (RSAC) for Europe (50 km x 50 km grid cells), defined as regions having the highest taxonomic diversity and/or presence of endangered species. We determined regional vulnerability by examining temporal trends of temperature and precipitation over the past 40 years, future climate projections, and the spatial distribution of roads. We integrated this information into a threat-level index and estimated the potential resilience of the amphibian communities based on the species' reproductive capacity. We identified 525 RSAC, half of which are in Central and Eastern Europe, and the other half distributed along the Mediterranean Basin. Mean annual temperature increased in almost all RSAC, but increments were smaller in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions. RSAC in the Mediterranean showed changes toward shorter droughts and increasingly extreme rainfall, whereas RSAC in Central and Eastern Europe presented trends toward lower daily precipitation and fewer days of uninterrupted rainfall. Regions with the highest concentration of roads may further exacerbate the impacts of the acute climatic changes observed in RSAC of Central Europe. Our framework based on the evolution of threats and the integration of life-history traits can be applied to evaluate vulnerability of other taxa and biome to global change drivers.