Assessing the Impact of Wildfire Emissions on the Seasonal Cycle of CO and Emergency Room Visits in Alberta and Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Exposure to wildfire smoke is a well-known concern for public health and is anticipated to worsen with an increase in wildfire activity related to climate change. This study uses satellite and ground-based carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from 2004 to 2019 to evaluate a change in its seasonal cycle due to wildfire emissions. Monthly average CO total columns from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument over Alberta and Ontario, and from a ground-based Fourier transform infrared spectrometer in downtown Toronto are compared before and after 1 January 2012, following previous literature. Between the two time periods, a new peak emerges in the seasonal cycle of CO, centered around August. Monthly emergency room admissions from Alberta and Ontario for nine cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are assessed with a difference in difference analysis, using MOPITT CO as the exposure metric. This analysis was used to calculate the change in monthly hospital admissions per 100,000 people, given a 1 ppb increase in XCO post-2012 compared to pre-2012, along with the 95% confidence interval (CI). For Ontario, this term is positive and significant for hypertension (change = 1.88, CI = 1.18–2.57), ischemic heart disease (0.50, CI = 0.12–0.88), arrhythmia (0.12, CI = 0.03–0.22), and asthma (0.31, CI = 0.05–0.57). For Alberta, there is a significant and positive interaction for arrhythmia (0.48, CI = 0.12–0.85). These results indicate that there was a statistically significant increase in adverse health outcomes for five of the eighteen disease-province pairings associated with the increase in atmospheric CO after 2011 coinciding with enhanced wildfire emissions.