The response mechanism of urban precipitation to impervious surface expansion

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102789

Yang Zhang , Yanhui Zhu , Kun Yang , Shihong Du , Quan Wang , Lei Zhao , Zongqi Peng , Yi Luo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Beijing Metropolitan Area

Study focus

Rapid urbanization has altered land‑surface characteristics, exacerbating extreme rainfall events and increasing the risk of urban flooding. However, the mechanisms by which impervious surface density (ISD)—an indicator of urban spatial structure—affects precipitation remain poorly understood, particularly across cities of different sizes. In this study, we employed XGBoost and SHAP methods to investigate the response mechanism of urban precipitation's spatiotemporal distribution to the ISD.

New hydrological insights for the region

The study reveals a significant positive correlation between impervious surface density (ISD) and annual precipitation enhancement. The effect of ISD on the increase of annual precipitation is more pronounced during the early stage of urbanization. Mechanistic analysis indicates that ISD primarily enhances precipitation through heat island effects in the initial urbanization stage, shifting to moisture transport regulation in later stage. To mitigate urban‑flooding risks driven by rapid local increases in precipitation, we recommend maintaining ISD below 47 %. These findings provide important theoretical and practical guidance for precipitation regulation and risk management in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide.

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城市降水对不透水地表扩展的响应机制

快速城市化改变了地表特征，加剧了极端降雨事件，增加了城市洪涝风险。然而，不透水表面密度（ISD）——城市空间结构的一个指标——影响降水的机制仍然知之甚少，特别是在不同规模的城市之间。本文采用XGBoost和SHAP方法研究了城市降水时空分布对ISD的响应机制。研究表明，不透水面密度（ISD）与年降水量增加之间存在显著的正相关关系。在城市化初期，ISD对年降水量增加的影响更为明显。机理分析表明，ISD在城市化初期主要通过热岛效应增强降水，在城市化后期转为调节水汽输送。为了减轻由局部降水快速增加导致的城市洪水风险，我们建议将ISD保持在47% %以下。这些发现为全球快速城市化地区的降水调控和风险管理提供了重要的理论和实践指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.