A critical analysis of reentry debris uncertainty and international coordination efforts

Abstract

The recent rapid advancement of commercial space operations has highlighted high levels of reentry debris modeling uncertainty and the lack of efficient international coordination for exchanging information to ensure these operations are conducted safely. One such source of modeling uncertainty occurs in aerothermal demise predictions of debris fragments while performing flight safety analysis for controlled reentries. Using current models, predicting aerothermal demise for any type of reentry with a high degree of certainty is a time and resource intensive process due to a lack of data, the introduction of new materials, and the complexity of current models. Another layer of uncertainty is introduced for cases of uncontrolled or random reentry of an object. For random reentry cases, there is limited capability to predict when and where debris will impact Earth’s surface.

Advancements in understanding of the risks from space operations, including controlled reentries, debris from launch, and random reentries, will allow countries to have higher certainty when a particular area may be exposed to risk. Existing international frameworks and processes are not agile enough to enable efficient data sharing, communication, or real time operational coordination for mitigating hazards from these space operations. Given the differences in jurisdiction, issues of sovereignty, lack of standardized procedures, and the ambiguity in implementing international space laws and treaties, the high degree of uncertainty in the risk predictions poses additional challenges with respect to the implementation of safety measures such as warnings and closures.

This paper investigates how improvements will be needed to safeguard public safety for reentry operations across the globe, by highlighting shortcomings in modeling ability and opportunities for increased operational coordination and communication with international partners.