Space vehicle reliability assessment for selected medium space powers

Abstract

This research examines space launch vehicle (SLV) and satellite reliability trends through a variety of statistical methods such as the first-level Bayesian estimation and the Weibull distribution for France, India, Israel, Japan, and South Korea. Datasets derived from the Seradata database included the following information: launch date, inactive date, launch country, satellite owner country, vehicle family, satellite name, orbit category, satellite status, mass category, event, event date, and event remarks. The first-level Bayesian estimation and success rates were calculated for 538 SLV launches from each country’s first launch date to 31 December 2023. Overall, 51 launches were failures, making up 9.48 % of total launches for the countries analyzed; 57.8 % of launches were sent to low Earth orbit (LEO) while 4.28 % were sent beyond geosynchronous/geostationary orbit (GEO-GSO). Of 18 SLVs analyzed, 6 vehicle families exhibited realized success rates above 90 %. Since 1965, 809 satellites were launched, with a 1.98 % failure rate. The primary cause of failure was due to the satellites, inability to transmit signals, making communication, command, and control unattainable. Ultimately, through Weibull distribution, satellites owned by France, India, Japan, and South Korea showed a decreasing failure rate over time while results from Israeli satellites were inconclusive.