System dynamics for assessing anthropogenic and climate change impacts on agro-hydrological sustainability, leveraging the newly developed evapotranspiration model. Case study: Qaranqu watershed

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102781

Vahid Nourani , Shahin Fathi , Yongqiang Zhang , Sameh A. Kantoush , Jinhui Jeanne Huang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Qaranqu watershed, Iran

Study focus

Complex interactions among climate change, anthropogenic activities and water resource management examined via system dynamics and Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) Evapotranspiration (ET) model.

New hydrological insights for the region

Through crop pattern modification scenario, variations in vegetation type resulted in 6 and 3.8 million cubic meters per year in available water by PML and PM models, respectively, which is approximately 10 and 2.5 percent higher than the current available water trend due to increase in rainfed wheat areas and in turn, reduction in leaf area index. However, cessation of land development due to high ET in pastures might cause a decrease in available water about 1 million cubic meters in the early years and 18 million cubic meters in the later years, corresponding to 1–27 % of available water compared to the existing trend from 2020 to 2045. Also, cessation of agricultural land development has resulted in decrease in GDP for this sector in contrast to other economic sectors. Given that agricultural sector’s investment share regard to total investment has risen to 23 %, its GDP share may be decreased by 12 % until 2045. The shift of this investment to other economic sectors, by 10 and 13 percent in industry and services sectors, respectively, indicates changes in GDP ratio of these sectors to total GDP by 7 and 5 percent until 2045.

查看原文本刊更多论文

利用新开发的蒸散模型评估人为和气候变化对农业水文可持续性影响的系统动力学。案例研究：卡冉曲流域

基于系统动力学和Penman-Monteith-Leuning （PML）蒸散发（ET）模型研究气候变化、人类活动与水资源管理之间的复杂相互作用。通过作物模式调整情景，植被类型的变化分别导致PML和PM模型计算的每年有效水量分别为600万立方米和380万立方米，这比目前的有效水量趋势高出约10%和2.5%，这是由于旱作小麦面积的增加，进而导致叶面积指数的减少。然而，由于牧场高ET而停止土地开发，可能会导致早期有效水量减少约100万立方米，后期减少1800万立方米，与2020 - 2045年现有趋势相比，相当于1 - 27% %的有效水量减少。此外，与其他经济部门相比，农业用地开发的停止导致该部门的国内生产总值下降。鉴于农业部门在总投资中所占的份额已经上升到23% %，到2045年，其GDP份额可能会下降12% %。这些投资向其他经济部门的转移（工业和服务业分别增长10%和13%）表明，到2045年，这些部门的GDP占GDP总量的比例将分别变化7%和5%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.