Commodity price dynamics in the era of energy transition: Exploring the substitutability of clean energy

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.033

Giulio Palomba, Marco Tedeschi

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Abstract

A growing body of literature argues that green transition offers a viable pathway to counteract climate change. This article examines the ongoing environmental paradigm shift by analyzing the relationships between clean and traditional commodity prices. Using a novel framework that integrates cointegration analysis with volatility transmission measures, we highlight how spillovers predominantly flow from renewable energy prices to fossil fuel prices, particularly during turbulent periods after 2020. Based on daily data through December 2024, our estimation results reveal that clean and traditional energy prices share long-term relationships, indicating a substitutability mechanism at work over the long run. These findings are consistent with the decline in fossil fuel use driven by positive shocks to clean energy supply and supportive public policies. From a financial perspective, our results align with growing market sentiment towards Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, reflecting an increasing investor preference for green financial products. Robustness checks confirm the validity of these findings.

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能源转型时代的商品价格动态：探索清洁能源的可替代性

越来越多的文献认为，绿色转型为应对气候变化提供了一条可行的途径。本文通过分析清洁和传统商品价格之间的关系，考察了正在进行的环境范式转变。通过将协整分析与波动传导措施相结合的新框架，我们强调了溢出效应如何主要从可再生能源价格流向化石燃料价格，特别是在2020年之后的动荡时期。基于截至2024年12月的每日数据，我们的估计结果显示，清洁能源和传统能源价格具有长期关系，表明长期以来存在可替代性机制。这些发现与清洁能源供应的积极冲击和支持性公共政策所推动的化石燃料使用量下降是一致的。从财务角度来看，我们的结果与市场对环境、社会和治理（ESG）原则日益增长的情绪一致，反映出投资者对绿色金融产品的偏好日益增加。稳健性检查证实了这些发现的有效性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Analysis and Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

9.20%

发文量

231

审稿时长

93 days

期刊介绍： Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.