Vulnerability assessment of smallholder farmers to climate change in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia's Awash River Basin face escalating climate risks that threaten water resources and livelihoods. This study quantifies vulnerability using an indicator-based framework of 15 indicators—six for exposure, four for sensitivity, and five for adaptive capacity. Indicator weights were derived through Principal Component Analysis, and vulnerability was mapped at 0.1° resolution. Temporal indicators (climate variables, vegetation health) were assessed monthly from 1981 to 2019, while static indicators drew from recent remote sensing products, reanalysis datasets, and national surveys. The analysis encompassed diverse production systems, including highland cropping, lowland pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock livelihoods.

Findings show a rising vulnerability trend, with severe years (1984, 1991, 2002, 2007–2009, 2011–2012, 2015, 2017) when up to 80 % of the basin faced moderate to high risk. Validation against drought records, crop yield data, and NDVI-based vegetation stress confirmed strong consistency (recall >0.75) in identifying vulnerable periods. Cropping systems were the most exposed, while pastoral systems exhibited relatively greater resilience. Lowland areas, despite high climate exposure, benefited from irrigation and larger landholdings, improving adaptive capacity. The results further highlight pervasive climate vulnerability across the past four decades. For pastoralists, improved rangeland access can reduce risk, while irrigation infrastructure remains the most decisive factor for building resilience in cropping systems. Tailored regional strategies—expanding irrigation, safeguarding rangelands, and enhancing adaptive capacity—are critical for reducing vulnerability and supporting sustainable livelihoods in the Awash Basin.