Photovoltaics development pathway and environmental benefits dynamics from technological evolution in China

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) serves as the dominant clean energy source in China, playing a crucial role in the nation's pursuit of carbon neutrality. Emerging next-generation PV technologies, exemplified by perovskite, have gained increasing attention due to their potential to reduce costs and enhance energy conversion efficiency. However, the market penetration and environmental impacts of these nascent technologies under different technological and socio-economic scenarios have not been systematically analyzed in existing studies, thus remaining unclear for China. To address this, we developed a dynamic assessment framework by coupling the Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) with the prospective Life Cycle Assessment (PLCA). GCAM was employed to project PV technology diffusion under varying socio-economic scenarios, climate targets, and cost trajectories, while PLCA enabled the evaluation of associated lifecycle environment impacts, identifying key factors and technological advancements across lifecycle stages influencing these impacts. Our results suggest that perovskite PVs will progressively replace silicon and thin-film technologies in China, achieving up to 55.2 % of new installations by 2060 under an optimal carbon neutrality and rapid cost decline scenario. Among the evaluated technologies, perovskite/TiO2 technology exhibits the lowest environmental impacts, while perovskite/Mono-Si technology shows the highest, particularly without technological advancements across PV lifecycle stages. Advancements such as improved conversion efficiency, reduced material and energy inputs, increased collection and recycling rates, and a decarbonized power mix, could reduce the environmental impact intensities by 62.8 %–97.1 %. As a result, total environmental impacts associated with installed PV capacity could decline by 81.7 %–87.8 % by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with significant reductions in freshwater ecotoxicity. This study advances current understanding by dynamically linking market transformation with environmental outcomes and provides a scientific basis for promoting the sustainable scaling of perovskite PVs and technological advancements across PV lifecycle stages in China and beyond.