Coupling a power system model with a hydrological model improves the representation of sub-monthly hydropower flexibility

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126694

Laure Baratgin , Philippe Quirion , Jan Polcher , Patrice Dumas

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Integrating large amounts of variable renewable power generation increases the need for flexible resources in the power system. Hydropower can be a precious asset for managing the variability in the grid. However, it will be subject to evolving constraints related to changes in the water resources and the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs.

This study explores the value of coupling a power system model with a hydrological model that represents the operation of hydroelectric dams, to simulate an hourly hydropower schedule consistent with a realistic management of the hydropower reservoirs at the national grid level. We model the French power system with the optimization model EOLES-Dispatch and assess the impact of the coupling with the ORCHIDEE model, which represents hydropower management.

We find that this new method allows us to simulate a hydropower schedule closer to the observed production, while power system models tend to overestimate the flexibility of hydropower. Considering a prospective 2050 power mix, we also find that accounting for these additional constraints leads to more frequent unsatisfied demand, which is underestimated by the usual representation of hydropower. Such a coupling of hydrological and power system modeling paves the way for a more robust representation of power dispatch in future power mixes, taking into account the joint evolution of water resources and power systems.

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电力系统模型与水文模型的耦合改善了分月水电灵活性的表征

整合大量的可变可再生能源发电增加了电力系统对灵活资源的需求。水电可以成为管理电网可变性的宝贵资产。然而，它将受到与水资源变化和多用途水库运作有关的不断变化的限制。本研究探讨了电力系统模型与代表水电大坝运行的水文模型耦合的价值，以模拟符合国家电网一级水电水库实际管理的每小时水电计划。我们使用优化模型EOLES-Dispatch对法国电力系统进行建模，并评估了与代表水电管理的ORCHIDEE模型耦合的影响。我们发现，这种新方法使我们能够模拟一个更接近于观测产量的水力发电计划，而电力系统模型往往高估了水力发电的灵活性。考虑到未来2050年的电力结构，我们还发现，考虑到这些额外的限制因素，将导致更频繁的未满足需求，这被通常的水电代表所低估。考虑到水资源和电力系统的共同演变，水文和电力系统建模的这种耦合为在未来的电力组合中更稳健地表示电力调度铺平了道路。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.