Resilience analysis from the perspective of global container shipping network evolution: Fine-grained modeling based on AIS data

Abstract

The global container shipping network serves as a key pillar of international trade, yet frequent sudden disruptions, such as public health crises and geopolitical conflicts, pose significant challenges to its stability and resilience. To gain deeper insights into the network's evolutionary characteristics under these disruptions, this study constructs fine-grained global container shipping networks on both monthly and weekly time scales, based on AIS trajectory data spanning 2019 to 2022 and supplemented by static port attributes. By computing metrics including node strength and centrality, and visualizing changes in port node strength worldwide, we analyze the network's dynamic evolution under the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the Suez Canal blockage. The results reveal that the network exhibits small-world and scale-free characteristics, with a few key ports maintaining core positions despite the disruptions. During the early stages of the pandemic, the average node strength dropped by approximately 45 %, reflecting the network's vulnerability. However, it quickly rebounded to about 91.6 % in the short term, demonstrating the network's notable recovery capacity. The Russia–Ukraine conflict significantly affected several ports and related routes in the Black Sea region, but its impact on global major hubs was relatively limited. In contrast, the Suez Canal blockage caused severe short-term disturbances to the network structure, yet the network largely recovered within two weeks. Based on these findings, we further propose differentiated policy recommendations for port authorities and shipping operators, offering empirical support and practical governance insights to enhance the responsiveness and recovery capacity of the shipping network under various types of disruptions.