Association Between Climatic Variables and Dengue Incidence in a Mekong Delta Province.

IF 0.9 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI:10.1177/10105395251374756

Tinh Ho Huu, Nhan Ho The, Binh Dang Thai, Toai Nguyen Phuong, Nguyen Do Phuc Nhu, Truc Huynh Minh, Chinh Dang Van

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Abstract

Dengue is a significant public health concern in tropical countries. This study explored the short-term associations between monthly climatic variables and dengue incidence. Dengue cases and weather parameters from 2001 to 2023 were collected in Can Tho City, a central province of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag linear model was employed to determine the associations. A total of 32 265 dengue cases were collected. Of these cases, 53.7% were male, and 64.1% were under 15. Each 5% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 19.3% increase in dengue cases. Each 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with a 13.8% increase in dengue cases. Rainfall showed a negative effect, with each 5 mm increase in rainfall decreasing cases by 1.3%. Wind velocity showed no significant impact. The study demonstrated that relative humidity and temperature are key predictors for dengue forecasting and prevention.

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湄公河三角洲地区气候变量与登革热发病率的关系

登革热是热带国家的一个重大公共卫生问题。本研究探讨了每月气候变量与登革热发病率之间的短期关系。在越南湄公河三角洲中部省份芹苴市收集了2001年至2023年的登革热病例和天气参数。采用具有分布滞后线性模型的准泊松回归来确定相关性。共收集到32 265例登革热病例。其中男性占53.7%，15岁以下占64.1%。相对湿度每增加5%，登革热病例就增加19.3%。平均气温每升高1℃，登革热病例就会增加13.8%。降雨量表现出负作用，降雨量每增加5毫米，病例减少1.3%。风速无显著影响。研究表明，相对湿度和温度是登革热预测和预防的关键预测因子。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

4.00%

发文量

147

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health (APJPH) is a peer-reviewed, bimonthly journal that focuses on health issues in the Asia-Pacific Region. APJPH publishes original articles on public health related issues, including implications for practical applications to professional education and services for public health and primary health care that are of concern and relevance to the Asia-Pacific region.