The role of biofuels in advancing sustainability: the future Mexican energy system

Abstract

In response to climate change, many countries, including Mexico, have committed to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through agreements such as that reached at the Conference of the Parties in Paris in 2015. As a result, Mexico enacted its General Law on Climate Change, which aims to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2050 in comparison with 2000 levels. This represents a significant challenge, especially considering that Mexico has a population of 124 million people and an annual final energy consumption exceeding 5000 PJ, of which 74% comes from hydrocarbons and emits 1.4% of the world's CO₂. This study presents a prospective analysis that estimates the potential impact of biofuels on the entire national energy system using Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. The analysis is structured around three key aspects: the potential applications of biofuels in national demand sectors (agriculture, industry, transport, and residential); the available bioenergy resources, which determine their utilization limits; and the conversion technologies, described in terms of their technical specifications. The results highlight the significant potential of biofuels to reduce national emissions. In a scenario in which renewable energy fully meets the country's energy demand by 2050, biofuels could prevent 26.51% of emissions in comparison with a business-as-usual scenario and cover 22.72% of total national energy demand.