A comparative assessment for agricultural eco-efficiency under conventional tillage and conservation tillage: A case study of China

Abstract

Achieving low-carbon agricultural development represents a fundamental objective of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Conservation tillage has demonstrated distinct advantages over conventional tillage across economy, ecology, and society. Nevertheless, prior research has not adequately addressed the differences in Agricultural Eco-Efficiency (AEE) between conventional tillage and conservation tillage. Based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2020, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index of AEE under different tillage regimes, in alignment with national “dual carbon” targets. A multi-level comparative analysis employing the kernel density estimation, the standard deviation ellipse model, and the Markov chain model is conducted to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of AEE and to forecast future trends. The findings indicate that, overall, AEE under conservation tillage demonstrates a marked increase compared to conventional tillage, with both systems exhibiting an initial decline followed by an increase over time. However, individual provinces differ significantly in the relative baseline AEE of contrasting tillage systems and trends over time. The long-term evolution of AEE in individual provinces is shaped by a combination of geospatial patterns, initial conditions, and other influencing factors. These findings provide valuable insights for policy formulation, the dissemination of conservation tillage, and the advancement of sustainable agricultural.