The potential for conflict in cislunar space: Findings from a tabletop exercise

Abstract

A number of state and non-state actors have lunar ambitions. Growing competition and a lack of internationally-agreed principles or rules governing activity in this region have raised the possibility that international activity on the Moon could result in heightened tensions or even conflict. To examine the possibility of conflict resulting from activities on the Moon, we designed a tabletop exercise (TTX) set in 2029, just five years in the future from the perspective of participants. In the exercise, countries and private entities find themselves in a hypothetical scenario involving conflicting interests in regard to a commercial “safety zone” claim. To probe these potential responses, we asked space policy professionals to play the roles of specific countries in which they had expertise. Using an observational wargame approach, we were able to explore how dialogue and negotiations may proceed among partners and between potential adversaries in order to generate new observations and hypotheses. The TTX suggested a number of issues that may be of relevance to future lunar conflicts. This included include the importance of the specific entities involved in the crisis and the ordering of events; the procedural legitimacy and inclusion of all relevant parties in the process of settling the conflict; the need for relevant scientific and technical expertise; and need to address the legitimacy and appropriate role of the private sector activity on the Moon. The final game outcome was a recommendation for both non-government and UN-sponsored meetings to develop appropriate guidelines for preventing future conflicts.