Optimal monetary policy with uncertain private sector foresight

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103826

Christopher Gust, Edward Herbst, David López-Salido

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We model private-sector expectations in a finite-horizon-planning framework: households and firms have limited foresight when making spending, saving, and pricing decisions. In this setting, contrary to standard New Keynesian (NK) models, we show that an “inflation scare” problem can arise in which agents’ longer-run inflation expectations deviate persistently from a central bank’s inflation target. We characterize optimal time-consistent monetary policy when there is uncertainty about the planning horizons of private sector agents and a risk of inflation scares. We show how risk-management considerations modify the optimal “leaning-against-the-wind” principle in the NK literature with a novel, additional preemptive motive to avert inflation scares.

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具有不确定私人部门远见的最优货币政策

我们在有限视界规划框架中对私营部门的预期进行建模：家庭和企业在做出支出、储蓄和定价决策时，其远见是有限的。在这种情况下，与标准的新凯恩斯主义（NK）模型相反，我们表明，当经济主体的长期通胀预期持续偏离央行的通胀目标时，可能会出现“通胀恐慌”问题。我们认为，当私营部门主体的规划前景存在不确定性，且存在通胀恐慌风险时，最优的时间一致性货币政策是什么。我们展示了风险管理方面的考虑如何用一种新颖的、额外的先发制人的动机来修改朝鲜文献中最优的“逆风”原则，以避免通货膨胀恐慌。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.