Modeling disruptive events in renewable energy supply: A review

IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Lovindu Wijesinghe , Jann Michael Weinand , Maximilian Hoffmann , Detlef Stolten
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Abstract

The accelerating shift toward renewable energy necessitates robust planning frameworks that can accommodate unexpected disruptions. While various energy system modeling methods are widely used for planning and decision-making, they each have their own strengths and weaknesses in capturing uncertainty in the outcomes of disruptive event modeling. This review addresses a critical research gap by systematically analyzing how such methods quantify and mitigate the impact of disruptive events on renewable energy supply. It is the first to comprehensively assess modeling approaches specifically in this context. The study categorizes 108 disruptive events from 102 articles into four primary types: natural (e.g., floods, heatwaves), human-caused intentional (e.g., technological innovations), socio-political (e.g., wars, policy changes), and economic (e.g., interest rate shifts, carbon tax changes). Articles were selected using a PRISMA-compliant methodology from multiple sources, applying strict inclusion criteria: relevance to renewable energy, a clear focus on disruptive events, and use of modeling methods. Findings confirm the hypothesis that incorporating broader socio-economic and environmental criteria into modeling improves the robustness and realism of planning under disruptive conditions. The review shows that relying on one modeling objective such as cost often limits the ability to capture uncertainty and stakeholder concerns. Instead, models that integrate multiple criteria and generate a range of feasible solutions offer more resilient and adaptable planning outcomes. The study recommends combining complementary modeling strategies and tailoring criteria to stakeholder priorities. Such combined modeling approaches are well suited to future studies, enabling flexible, risk-informed, and context-sensitive modeling of disruptive events in renewable energy supply systems.
可再生能源供应中的破坏性事件建模:综述
向可再生能源的加速转变需要强有力的规划框架,以适应意外的中断。虽然各种能源系统建模方法被广泛用于规划和决策,但它们在捕获破坏性事件建模结果中的不确定性方面各有优缺点。本综述通过系统分析这些方法如何量化和减轻破坏性事件对可再生能源供应的影响,解决了一个关键的研究空白。这是第一个全面评估建模方法,特别是在这种情况下。该研究将102篇文章中的108个破坏性事件分为四种主要类型:自然(如洪水、热浪)、人为(如技术创新)、社会政治(如战争、政策变化)和经济(如利率变化、碳税变化)。文章采用符合prisma标准的方法从多个来源中选择,采用严格的纳入标准:与可再生能源相关,明确关注破坏性事件,并使用建模方法。研究结果证实了将更广泛的社会经济和环境标准纳入模型的假设,可以提高破坏性条件下规划的稳健性和现实性。回顾表明,依赖于一个建模目标,例如成本,通常会限制捕捉不确定性和涉众关注的能力。相反,集成多个标准并产生一系列可行解决方案的模型提供了更具弹性和适应性的规划结果。该研究建议将互补的建模策略和针对利益相关者优先级的裁剪标准结合起来。这种组合建模方法非常适合未来的研究,使可再生能源供应系统中破坏性事件的灵活,风险知情和上下文敏感的建模成为可能。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments Energy-Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
CiteScore
12.70
自引率
12.50%
发文量
1091
期刊介绍: Encouraging a transition to a sustainable energy future is imperative for our world. Technologies that enable this shift in various sectors like transportation, heating, and power systems are of utmost importance. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments welcomes papers focusing on a range of aspects and levels of technological advancements in energy generation and utilization. The aim is to reduce the negative environmental impact associated with energy production and consumption, spanning from laboratory experiments to real-world applications in the commercial sector.
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