Climate-driven shifts in the geographic distribution of fodder trees in West Africaʼs Grazing landscapes

Abstract

West African pastures host several valuable fodder tree species which are essential for livestock rearing. Among these, Cordyla pinnata and Boscia senegalensis play a particularly significant role in the region’s landscape, providing both food products and high-quality fodder for livestock. However, these species face an increase anthropogenic threat, which compromises their long-term availability. Despite their importance, little is known about their spatial distribution under changing climatic conditions in West Africa. This study, we assessed the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of Cordyla pinnata and Boscia senegalensis in Burkina Faso. Presence data comprising 306 records of C. pinnata and 2327 records of B. senegalensis were used with 19 bioclimatic variables. To forecast future predictions, two global climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MIROC6) were under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) across two-time horizons (2070 and 2100). Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict the species distributions. The results revealed that precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) and minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) mostly affect the habitat suitability of the two species. About 8.14 % and 33.36 % of Burkina Faso’s land area are currently suitable for the conservation of C. pinnata and B. senegalensis, respectively. However, under future climatic projections, the suitable habitats of these species are expected to expand by 40 % by the horizons 2070 and 2100, regardless of climate model and scenario. Besides, some currently suitable habitats may become unsuitable in the future. To ensure the survival of these threatened, species proactive conservation strategies are essential. Promoting domestication and implementing habitat protection measures are strongly recommended for their long-term preservation.