Impact of climate change on the distribution of potentially suitable habitat areas for major catch fish in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea

Abstract

Climate change can hamper or imbalance marine ecological functions, thereby reducing marine resources and changing their spatial distribution patterns. To further understand the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms, this study analyzed 10 major catch fish species (category) found in the Beibu Gulf and used the MaxEnt model to explore their distribution from 2006 to 2018 based on the surveys conducted by 26 cruises on bottom trawl fishery stocks in the Beibu Gulf and five environmental factors. The spatial distribution pattern and centroid movement trends in three different CO₂ emission scenarios in RCP2.6 (2041–2060) and RCP8.5 (2041–2060) were also determined. The results demonstrated that the mean area under the curve for current, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5 scenarios were 0.898, 0.897, and 0.896, respectively, indicating the reliable performance of the model. The total area suitable for Sciaenidae was reduced in RCP2.6, indicating that this might be a loser taxon. The RCP8.5 climate scenario revealed an increase in the total area suitable for the 10 major catch fish species (category), indicating that they might be winner taxa. The rates of expansion, contraction, and centroid change in their potential habitats were generally higher in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6. The mean shift rates in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 5.79 km/10(a) and 6.14 km/10(a), respectively. Centroid analysis conducted based on future climate change patterns revealed that migration direction would be initially toward north, which would then shift to south.