Application of ARIMAX for analyzing and forecasting regional carbon emissions towards sustainable development: a case study of Changzhou, China.

Abstract

It is increasingly evident that climate change has an inevitable impact on the environment, the society, and human health. NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory has been measuring global carbon dioxide concentration such as XCO₂ for years, and such remote sensing data have been proved to be effective in policy-making and implementation towards sustainable development. China's "30-60" target has set a higher target for sustainable development. An 8-year retrospective sequential trend And a 4-year monthly forecast for Changzhou City in China using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model are studied. Social and economic factors are incorporated into mathematical model for deriving carbon emissions from atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Regional total net carbon emissions in all counties in Changzhou have been increasing over the past 8 years and during the COVID-19 pandemic, from 35.25 Mt in 2015 to 68.31 Mt in 2022, And are predicted to reach 93.26 Mt by 2026, while the growth rate will decrease from peak 13.65% to 7.69%. Carbon reduction measurements and technologies towards the carbon peak and carbon neutral have contributed to the decrease of carbon emission growth rate.