Bastiaan Van der Roest, Egil A J Fischer, Don Klinkenberg, Martin C J Bootsma, Mojca Maticic, Katarina Resman-Rus, Miša Korva, Tatjana Avsic-Zupanc, Mirjam Kretzschmar
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
In 2022, an Mpox clade II outbreak affected many countries. To optimize control, knowledge on the number of new introductions (human cases infected from outside the study population) versus local transmission is important. We extracted sequences of all 48 Mpox cases in Slovenia in 2022 from the NCBI database, of which 42 passed quality control. We estimated the number of introductions using the phylodynamic model phybreak by integrating genomic and epidemiological data and inferred transmission events. By repeating this analysis with weekly cumulative case data, we assessed if introductions could have been reliably inferred in real time. The number of introductions, estimated after the outbreak ended, was 19 (95% CI: 13-29), and two larger transmission clusters existed. As these introductions occurred throughout the outbreak, we conclude that the Slovenian Mpox outbreak was mainly driven by new introductions. Analysing the data 'in real time' would have only slightly overestimated the number of introductions per week, capturing the trend of introductions as main driver of the outbreak. This makes it useful for guiding control policy during outbreaks, prioritizing the rapid identification of cases among travellers, and with that preventing emergence of new transmission chains.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.