Critical Role of Land Management Practices in Augmenting China’s Terrestrial Carbon Sink up to 2060

Abstract

China’s carbon neutrality goal hinges on augmenting its terrestrial carbon sink through land management practices and environmental changes. However, the magnitude of China’s future terrestrial carbon sink and its contributing factors remain uncertain. Notably, there is a lack of appropriate tools to parse the contributions of individual land management practices (i.e., afforestation/reforestation, grassland grazing exclusion, and wood extraction) to China’s future terrestrial carbon sink. Employing a process-based model, this study projected an increment of 84.8 Tg C yr^–1 in China’s terrestrial carbon sink for 2021–2060 under the SSP1–2.6 scenario relative to the 2020 baseline of 224.1 Tg C yr^–1. Land management practices, including afforestation and reforestation, reduced wood extraction, and grazing exclusion, were responsible for 96.8% of this increment, while environmental changes accounted for only 3.2% of this increment, with climate change nearly fully offsetting the contribution from atmospheric CO₂ growth. China’s terrestrial carbon sinks were estimated to range from 289.8 to 339.8 Tg C yr^–1 during 2021–2060 under different land management practices and environmental conditions. These findings highlight the dominant role of land management practices in augmenting carbon sequestration and provide critical insights for developing climate policies that support China’s carbon neutrality goals.