A national cohort study of long-term opioid prescription and sociodemographic and health care-related risk factors.

Abstract

Background: Opioids are essential medicines for pain management; however, long-term use is associated with negative outcomes, including addiction. The aim of the study was to analyze the risk of long-term use after an initial opioid prescription and examine associated sociodemographic and health care-related risk factors.

Methods: We identified a strictly defined, five-year opioid-naïve population of adults aged 18-64 years who received an initial opioid prescription between 2016 and 2020 in Swedish national registers. We modeled the association between individual characteristics and odds of long-term ( > 3 months) versus short-term ( ≤ 3 months) use, and odds of different durations of use ( > 3-6, >6-12, and >12 months) using logistic regression analyses.

Results: Of 754,982 opioid-naïve individuals with an initial opioid prescription, 8.1% use opioids long-term. Individuals treated for a recent external injury have lower odds of long-term opioid use (e.g., >12 vs ≤3 months: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.52-0.59), whereas those who initiated treatment in primary care have higher odds (e.g., >12 vs ≤3 months: OR 3.02, 95% CI 2.90-3.14). Individuals with a history of substance use disorders and greater use of psycholeptic drugs have higher odds of long-term use. Sociodemographic factors, including older age, lower education level, and not cohabiting are also associated with longer durations of use.

Conclusions: Of opioid-naïve individuals, 8.1% develop long-term prescription opioid use, with higher odds among individuals with psychiatric history and whose opioid treatment initiated in primary care. Careful evaluation of patient health and regular follow-up are essential to reduce the risk of long-term opioid use.