[Assessing the Economic Value of Carbon Storage and Land Use Changes in Wuhan Based on the FLUS and InVEST Model].

Abstract

Land use/land cover change is a key factor affecting the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems， and understanding the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon storage and its economic value has great significance to the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. Using the FLUS and InVEST models， we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon storage in Wuhan from 2000 to 2020 and further simulated the impacts of land use changes on carbon storage under different scenarios （natural development scenario， economic priority development scenario， and comprehensive development scenario） in 2035. We also estimated the economic value of carbon storage in each period by combining this value with the compound present value formulas. The study produced the following results： ① Cultivated land and water area are persistently the main land use types in Wuhan， and their proportion reached 73.208% in 2020. Construction land increased rapidly during the study period due to the transfer of cultivated， water， and forest land. ② During the period from 2000 to 2020， the total carbon storage showed a continuous declining trend， with a cumulative loss of 3.461 Tg. The spatial distribution pattern remained relatively stable， showing the characteristic of "higher in the north and south， lower in the middle." During this period， changes in cultivated land and construction land were the main factors contributing to the decrease in carbon storage in Wuhan. ③ The spatial pattern of carbon storage under the different scenarios in 2035 is not much different from the pattern in 2020， but there are differences in the spatial changes of carbon storage under each scenario. Affected by the change of land use types， carbon storage decreases under all three scenarios， but the comprehensive development scenario suppresses the loss of carbon storage most significantly. ④ The economic value of carbon storage in Wuhan increased by 3.056 4 billion yuan from 2000 to 2020. The economic value of carbon storage in farmland increased by 1.511 8 billion yuan through the 20 years and was the main driving force for the increase in the economic value of carbon storage in Wuhan. From 2020 to 2035， the economic value of carbon storage varies under different scenarios. The highest economic value of carbon storage， which occurs under the comprehensive development scenario， is 11.169 8 billion yuan. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for the region to enhance its carbon sequestration capacity， optimize the allocation of land resources， and formulate policies for green sustainable development.