[Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions from the Paper Industry in Guangdong Province Based on the Extended STIRPAT Model].

Abstract

Guangdong Province is one of the provinces in China with a developed paper industry， and accurately predicting carbon emissions from the paper industry in Guangdong Province and formulating reasonable and effective carbon emission reduction measures have a significant impact on achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of China's paper industry. To this end， total industrial output value， employment scale， per capita industrial output value， carbon productivity， energy intensity， and energy structure indicators were introduced to construct the extended stochastic environmental impact assessment （STIRPAT） model， the partial least squares method was used for regression analysis， and the carbon emissions of Guangdong's paper industry from 2023 to 2050 under four scenarios were predicted. The study produced several results： ① Total industrial output value， per capita industrial output value， employment scale， and energy intensity are positively correlated with carbon emissions， whereas carbon productivity and energy structure are negatively correlated with carbon emissions. ②Under the baseline scenario， the paper industry can only achieve carbon peaking in 2040； under the low-carbon development scenario， although the paper industry can achieve carbon peaking by 2030， its carbon emissions will remain between 16.147 Mt and 19.337 Mt by 2050； under the strong low-carbon development scenario， the paper industry can not only achieve carbon peaking by 2030 but is also expected to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. ③Under the fast development scenario， the carbon emissions of the paper industry maintain an upward trend， and the carbon emissions reach a high level in 2050， making it basically impossible to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. Therefore， Guangdong's paper industry should rationally plan the development of its paper production scale， actively enhance carbon productivity， optimize energy structure， and promote green technological advancements in the industry， thereby driving green and sustainable development of the paper industry.