[Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Dali County Based on InVEST-PLUS Model].

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage from the perspective of territorial spatial planning， using Dali County as a case study. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage were analyzed from 1990 to 2020 using the InVEST and PLUS models. Then， the changes of the land use and carbon storage in 2030 were predicted under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and economic development. The results are as follows： ①The land use type of Dali County is mainly cultivated land， accounting for more than 70% of the total area， followed by forest land， grassland， water bodies， construction land， and unused land. From 1990 to 2020， the area of grassland and unused land decreases， while the area of cultivated land， forest land， water bodies， and construction land increase. Notably， the area of construction land experiences the most rapid increase of 78.72%. ② Spatially， the regions with a significant increase in carbon storage are located mainly in the southern sandy areas of Dali County， the regions with a decrease in carbon storage are scattered， and the carbon storage in the Yellow River beach area has a notable general downward trend. Temporally， the carbon storage in Dali County shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000. However， with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of construction land area during 2000 to 2020， the loss rate of carbon storage increases， and the loss amount reaches 50.78×10⁶ t. ③ Obvious differences of carbon storage in 2030 emerge among the different scenarios. In the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage increases because the protection of forest and grass resources and strict constraints on the expansion of construction land are effectively ensured. In the natural development scenario， less carbon is lost. In the economic development scenario， the significant conversion of high-density carbon agricultural land to low-density carbon construction land leads to the greatest carbon loss. In light of these results， future land use planning in Dali County should focus on enhancing the control and protection of ecological nodes， strictly regulating the addition of new construction land， optimizing land use patterns， improving ecosystem service functions， increasing carbon sequestration efficiency， and promoting coordinated development between the county's economy and environment.