[Spatial and Temporal Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Emission Intensity of County Energy Consumption in Gansu Province and Its Emission Reduction Effectiveness].

Abstract

Scientifically estimating and dynamically monitoring the development trend of regional energy consumption carbon emissions and their intensity is the scientific basis and basic guarantee for formulating， implementing， and evaluating regional carbon reduction strategies. Based on long time-series DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light datasets， this paper simulates the carbon emissions and their intensity of energy consumption in counties in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020. Non-parametric kernel density estimation， spatial Markov chain， spatial variation function， and other models are used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity， and correction coefficients are used to test the effectiveness of reducing carbon emission intensity in each county. The results follow： ① During the research period， the overall carbon emission intensity of energy consumption in Gansu Province showed a downward trend， with a 64.82% decrease in energy consumption carbon emission intensity in 2020 compared to 2000. ② The carbon emission intensity of counties showed obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics， and the high carbon intensity areas mainly in Lanzhou City in Longzhong， Jiuquan City in Hexi， and Qingyang City in Longdong are gradually transforming into low-carbon intensity areas. ③ The carbon emission intensity at the county level showed a club convergence effect and spatial correlation， and the spatial differences in carbon emission intensity at the county level gradually decreased. ④ By 2020， more than half of the counties in Gansu Province had achieved significant emission reduction results， but there were still some counties whose carbon emission intensity had decreased below the provincial average， indicating that county units should also follow the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities when promoting carbon reduction. The research results provide important references for promoting regional green and low-carbon transformation and energy conservation and carbon reduction in Gansu Province.