[Multi-scenario Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Stock Assessment in Shaanxi Province Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model].

Abstract

The rapid development of global society and economy has brought heavy pressure on the natural environment， and the burning of fossil fuels releases a large amount of CO₂， which seriously harms the production and life of human beings. Based on the strategic background of the dual-carbon target， this study selected Shaanxi Province， which accounts for a large area of cropland， woodland， and grassland， as its study area and used the gas emission scenario of SSPs in the IPCC report to study the future period of the province's land-use type changes and the characteristics of its carbon stock changes to provide theoretical suggestions for the changes of ecosystem carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province in the future period. The results of the study follow： ① Under the SSP126 scenario， the change in land use types in Shaanxi Province in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of woodland and a decrease in the area of cropland and grassland. Under the SSP245 scenario， the change in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland and grassland. Under the SSP585 scenario， the change in land use types in 2030-2050 consists of an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland， grassland， and others. ② The simulation study of Shaanxi Province's carbon stock in 2030-2050 found that among the three SSP scenarios Shaanxi Province is most suitable for the development path of SSP126， i.e.， sustainable socioeconomic development and lower gas emissions. ③ Carbon stocks are mainly concentrated in land use types with high carbon density values， such as woodlands and grasslands. An examination of the spatial distribution of land use in Shaanxi Province revealed that areas with high carbon stock values are distributed in the Qinling Mountains in southern Shaanxi， the southern mountainous areas， and in southern Shaanxi. Areas with medium carbon stocks are distributed in the Loess Plateau in central northern Shaanxi， most of the Guanzhong Plain in the Guanzhong Region， and in Hanzhong in southern Shaanxi. Areas with low carbon stocks are mainly distributed in the areas bordering the Mu Us Desert in northern Shaanxi， concentrated or sporadically distributed along the Weihe River Basin in the Guanzhong Region， and sporadically distributed along the Hanjiang River Basin in southern Shaanxi. The area of future low-carbon reserves in Shaanxi Province is larger under the SSP585 scenario than under the other two scenarios.