[Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emission from Land Use and Its Driving Factors at the County in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei].

Abstract

Carbon emissions triggered by land use changes have become the main source of regional carbon emissions. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei， where land use changes are extreme and the intensity of carbon emissions far exceeds the national average， as the study area and taking the county as the study unit， we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal evolution of regional land use carbon emissions and its driving factors， which has great significance in guiding the optimization and adjustment of the low-carbon land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the realization of the goal of the "dual-carbon" strategy. This study integrated data from multiple sources， including land use， nighttime lighting， and socioeconomic data， and also integrated the carbon emission coefficient method， nighttime lighting inversion， improved Kaya model， and LMDI model to study the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions from land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei counties and identify the driving factors in the period of 2000?2020. The study produced several results： ① From 2000 to 2020， land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was mainly characterized by a dramatic conversion of construction land and cropland， with construction land as the main carbon source and forest land as the main carbon sink. ② During the study period， the net carbon emission from land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei increased from 71.857 9 million t to 159.698 5 million t， with a change rate of 122.24%. Carbon emissions in Caofeidian District， Fuping County， and Luanping County increased by a higher amount， whereas carbon emissions in Dongcheng， Xicheng， and Chaoyang Districts of Beijing decreased. ③ The economic contribution coefficient of carbon emissions from land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei showed a decreasing trend in general， while the spatial pattern of ecological carrying coefficients was more stable， with high ecological carrying coefficient （>1） counties concentrated in the northwestern ecological conservation area and other districts and counties consistently having lower ecological carrying coefficients. ④ The level of economic development was the main factor contributing to carbon emissions， and the economic efficiency of land use was the main factor inhibiting carbon emissions. Therefore， pursuing high-quality and sustainable economic development， enhancing land use intensification， promoting technological innovation， and building a strong ecological barrier is the best strategy for reducing carbon emissions from land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.