Model‐Based Decomposition of Spatially Varying Temporal Shifts in Seasonal Streamflow Across North Temperate US Rivers

Abstract

Anthropogenically forced climate shifts disrupt the seasonal behavior of climatic and hydrologic processes. The seasonality of streamflow has significant implications for the ecology of riverine ecosystems and for meeting societal demands for water resources. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of daily streamflow to quantify how the shape of annual hydrographs are changing and to evaluate temporal trends in model‐based hydrologic indices related to flow timing and magnitude shifts. We apply this model to 1,112 gages across the Northern US over the years 1965–2022. We identify large‐scale patterns in temporal changes to streamflow profiles that are consistent with regional changes in hydroclimate, including decreasing seasonal flow variability in the Pacific Northwest and increasing winter flows in the northeastern United States. Within these regions we also observe fine‐scale heterogeneity in streamflow timing and magnitude shifts, both of which have potentially significant implications for riverine ecosystem function and the ecosystem services they provide.