Kristie L Ebi, Peng Bi, Kathryn Bowen, Michael Brauer, Paul L C Chua, Felipe J Colón-González, Asya Dimitrova, Antonio Gasparrini, Nelson Gouveia, Shakoor Hajat, Ian Hamilton, Sherilee Harper, Tomoko Hasegawa, Masahiro Hashizume, Clare Heaviside, Yasushi Honda, Carole Green, Chris Jack, Ho Kim, Patrick Kinney, Brama Kone, Sari Kovats, Simon J Lloyd, Andrew P Morse, Nicholas H Ogden, Shlomit Paz, Jeff Price, Sadie J Ryan, Jan C Semenza, Timothy Sheehan, Rachael Taylor, Bas van Ruijven, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Rachel Warren, Ben Zaitchik, Jeremy J Hess
{"title":"Priority climate and health modelling needs.","authors":"Kristie L Ebi, Peng Bi, Kathryn Bowen, Michael Brauer, Paul L C Chua, Felipe J Colón-González, Asya Dimitrova, Antonio Gasparrini, Nelson Gouveia, Shakoor Hajat, Ian Hamilton, Sherilee Harper, Tomoko Hasegawa, Masahiro Hashizume, Clare Heaviside, Yasushi Honda, Carole Green, Chris Jack, Ho Kim, Patrick Kinney, Brama Kone, Sari Kovats, Simon J Lloyd, Andrew P Morse, Nicholas H Ogden, Shlomit Paz, Jeff Price, Sadie J Ryan, Jan C Semenza, Timothy Sheehan, Rachael Taylor, Bas van Ruijven, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Rachel Warren, Ben Zaitchik, Jeremy J Hess","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify priority strategies for enhancing the validity, utility, and policy relevance of climate and health models. Foundational investments to support modelling included strengthening research capacity, establishing a network of multinational centres of excellence for transdisciplinary research and capacity building, improving data collection and sharing infrastructure, investing in scenario development and quantitative elaboration, assessing adaptation effectiveness, and committing to intermodel comparisons and interdisciplinary modelling activities. Specific recommendations included updating the 2014 WHO Quantitative Risk Assessment to cover a wider range of causal pathways and health endpoints, using interdisciplinary methods that facilitate model intercomparisons. Additional recommendations included supporting modelling of a broader set of climate-health outcomes, developing models to support early warning systems and investments in their implementation, evaluation, and maintenance, and improving health system capacity for modelling in low-resource settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":" ","pages":"101297"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Planetary Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify priority strategies for enhancing the validity, utility, and policy relevance of climate and health models. Foundational investments to support modelling included strengthening research capacity, establishing a network of multinational centres of excellence for transdisciplinary research and capacity building, improving data collection and sharing infrastructure, investing in scenario development and quantitative elaboration, assessing adaptation effectiveness, and committing to intermodel comparisons and interdisciplinary modelling activities. Specific recommendations included updating the 2014 WHO Quantitative Risk Assessment to cover a wider range of causal pathways and health endpoints, using interdisciplinary methods that facilitate model intercomparisons. Additional recommendations included supporting modelling of a broader set of climate-health outcomes, developing models to support early warning systems and investments in their implementation, evaluation, and maintenance, and improving health system capacity for modelling in low-resource settings.
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice.
With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.
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