Dynamics of cholera transmission in poultry farm: insights from a compartmental model and control strategies.

IF 1.7 3区农林科学 Q2 AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE

British Poultry Science Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI:10.1080/00071668.2025.2556415

A Malek

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

1. Fowl cholera poses a significant challenge for poultry farms around the globe. The disease's high mortality in poultry affects economics for farmers.2. A susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-treated-culled-recovered (SEIATCR) mathematical model was used to describe the dynamics of cholera transmission in poultry farms. This calculated the basic reproduction number (R_0) using a next-generation matrix; a mathematical tool used in population dynamics and epidemiology to calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀).3. The SEIATCR model was replicated using the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg Method (RK-45) numerical process using the value of the model's parameters available from the reported literature.4. The results showed that treatment and culling had a significant effect on disease transmission. Moreover, treatment was more effective than culling. Sensitivity analysis of the model's parameters for the basic reproduction number was investigated using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC), which showed that transmission rate and vaccine efficacy had the greatest sensitivity index and treatment rate is more sensitive than culling. In epidemiology, a sensitivity index is a numerical value that enumerates the impact of changes in a model's parameters on the model's output, such as disease transmission.5. There will always be a need to vaccinate, treat and cull infected poultry to control cholera in poultry farms.

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家禽养殖场霍乱传播的动态：从分区模型和控制策略的见解。

1. 家禽霍乱对全球家禽养殖场构成重大挑战。该病在家禽中的高死亡率影响农民的经济。采用易感-暴露-有症状-无症状治疗-扑杀-恢复（SEIATCR）数学模型描述家禽养殖场霍乱传播动态。它使用下一代矩阵计算基本繁殖数（R_0）；人口动力学和流行病学中用于计算基本繁殖数（R 0）的数学工具。使用Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg方法（RK-45）数值过程，使用从文献中可获得的模型参数值，复制了SEIATCR模型。结果表明，处理和扑杀对疾病传播有显著影响。此外，治疗比扑杀更有效。采用偏秩相关系数（PRCC）对模型参数对基本繁殖数进行敏感性分析，结果表明，传输率和疫苗效力的敏感性指数最大，处理率的敏感性高于扑杀。在流行病学中，敏感性指数是一个数值，它列举了模型参数变化对模型输出的影响，例如疾病传播。总是需要接种疫苗、治疗和扑杀受感染的家禽，以控制家禽养殖场的霍乱。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

British Poultry Science 农林科学-奶制品与动物科学

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

5.00%

发文量

审稿时长

4.5 months

期刊介绍： From its first volume in 1960, British Poultry Science has been a leading international journal for poultry scientists and advisers to the poultry industry throughout the world. Over 60% of the independently refereed papers published originate outside the UK. Most typically they report the results of biological studies with an experimental approach which either make an original contribution to fundamental science or are of obvious application to the industry. Subjects which are covered include: anatomy, embryology, biochemistry, biophysics, physiology, reproduction and genetics, behaviour, microbiology, endocrinology, nutrition, environmental science, food science, feeding stuffs and feeding, management and housing welfare, breeding, hatching, poultry meat and egg yields and quality.Papers that adopt a modelling approach or describe the scientific background to new equipment or apparatus directly relevant to the industry are also published. The journal also features rapid publication of Short Communications. Summaries of papers presented at the Spring Meeting of the UK Branch of the WPSA are published in British Poultry Abstracts .