A Safe Operating Space for Salmon Watersheds Under Rapid Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change and local pressures are eroding the health and performance of many watersheds and their freshwater ecosystems, pushing these complex social‐ecological systems to the boundaries of their safe operating space. Here, we offer a synthetic perspective on the downscaled application of the safe operating space concept to inform the stewardship of watersheds in this time of rapid climate change, with particular focus on watersheds that support coldwater migratory fishes such as Pacific salmon. First, we review the safe operating space concept as it applies to salmon watersheds as social‐ecological systems. Salmon watersheds, and the benefits they provide for diverse peoples, are under enormous cumulative pressure from climate change as well as local activities such as forestry, urbanisation, mining and agriculture. We identify four general syndromes of dual local and climate pressures. For example, local pressures, such as the removal of riparian vegetation that shades streams, can exacerbate climate warming of water temperatures. Furthermore, extractive industries can damage or destroy future habitats and thus erode adaptive capacity. As an illustrative example of how the safe operating space concept can be operationalised, we assess alternative plausible watershed futures of land use and climate change scenarios and salmon performance. Collectively, this work showcases tangible options for local management to help give salmon watersheds the time and space to cope with climate change. More broadly, while there is a global need to address climate change, local watershed management is a key component of pathways towards freshwater sustainability and their services for humanity.