Compound drought and heatwave events and childhood diarrhea: current impacts and future risk in low- and middle-income countries

IF 9.7 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environment International Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109792

Wenhao Yu , Mingxiao Guo , Guoao Li , Wen Li , Yanwen Cao , Kejia Hu , Haitao Wang , Wei Ma , Qi Zhao , Lixiang Li , Jie Yan

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Abstract

Background

The risk of childhood diarrhea related to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) remain unclear at present and in the future under climate change scenarios.

Methods

We used information on diarrhea prevalence from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Three indicators considering heatwave frequency (HWF), intensity (HWEMD), and cumulative heat (CH) were used. CDHW was defined as drought and heatwave occurred simultaneously. A modified Poisson regression model was employed to estimate the association between CDHW and diarrhea. Then the association was used to project the excess risk of CDHW-related childhood diarrhea by climate zones and regions under different climate scenarios.

Results

A total of 64,429 children under five years were included. The relative risk (RR) of CDHWs (e.g., compound severe HWF and severe drought; RR = 1.392, 95 %CI: 1.247–1.553) were significantly higher than heatwave alone (e.g., severe HWF only; RR = 1.150, 95 %CI: 1.044–1.268). The effect of severe CDHWs disappeared from subgroups with low to high Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) scores. The average excess risk (ER) per hot season attributed to compound drought and HWF increased by 16.4–84.8 % during 2021–2100 under various climate change scenarios. Future CDHW-related ER of childhood diarrhea varied by climate zones and geographic regions.

Conclusion

There was a stronger association between CDHW and diarrhea risk than that of heatwave alone, while good WASH had a potential protective effect. Our findings highlight the need of integrated public health and climate adaptation strategies to address the escalating burden of childhood diarrhea associated with compound climate extremes.

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复合干旱和热浪事件与儿童腹泻：低收入和中等收入国家的当前影响和未来风险

在气候变化情景下，儿童腹泻与复合干旱和热浪（CDHW）相关的风险目前和未来仍不清楚。方法我们使用来自人口与健康调查的腹泻患病率信息。采用热浪频率（HWF）、强度（HWEMD）和累积热量（CH）三个指标。CDHW定义为干旱和热浪同时发生。采用修正泊松回归模型估计CDHW与腹泻的关系。然后利用该关联对不同气候情景下不同气候带和地区cdhw相关性儿童腹泻的超额风险进行预测。结果共纳入5岁以下儿童64429例。cdhw的相对危险度（RR）（如复合严重HWF和严重干旱，RR = 1.392,95 %CI: 1.247 ~ 1.553）显著高于单纯热浪（如单纯严重HWF， RR = 1.150,95 %CI: 1.044 ~ 1.268）。水、环境卫生和个人卫生（WASH）评分从低到高的亚组中，严重cdhw的影响消失。在不同气候变化情景下，复合干旱和HWF导致的高温季平均超额风险（ER）在2021-2100年间增加了16.4-84.8 %。未来儿童腹泻与cdhw相关的ER因气候和地理区域而异。结论高温天气与腹泻风险的相关性强于单纯高温天气，良好的WASH具有潜在的保护作用。我们的研究结果强调了综合公共卫生和气候适应策略的必要性，以解决与复合极端气候相关的儿童腹泻负担不断增加的问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environment International 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.90

自引率

3.40%

发文量

734

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.