Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia.

IF 3.1 2区医学 Q3 IMMUNOLOGY

AIDS Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI:10.1097/QAD.0000000000004344

Rongxing Weng, Jisoo A Kwon, Mo Hammoud, Brent Clifton, Nick Scott, Skye Mcgregor, Richard T Gray

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: Government-imposed physical distancing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted biobehavioral HIV prevention practices and access to healthcare services. This study aimed to use a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia, using empirical data.

Design: A retrospective modeling study.

Methods: We developed a mathematical model to estimate monthly HIV incidence between January 2020 and August 2022. We obtained aggregated monthly data for sexual partners, condom use, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and migration. Three scenarios were simulated: 1) a COVID-19 scenario; 2) a no COVID-19 scenario where input parameters remained at pre-COVID-19 values; and 3) a no COVID-19 scenario with continued PrEP scale-up.

Results: In the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1,263 (95% Percentile Interval (PI): 880-1,706) infections would have occurred between January 2020 and August 2022 compared to 915 (95% PI: 638-1,282) for the COVID-19 scenario (a 27.6% reduction). Reduced sexual partners was the leading factor contributing to the change in HIV infections and diagnoses (-24.9% and -10.6%, respectively). MSM aged ≥50 years had a larger reduction (31.0%) in new HIV infections than their younger counterparts (19.9%).

Conclusions: A substantial reduction in new HIV infections and diagnoses in Australia occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to decreased numbers of sexual partners. This reduction underscores the need for sustained public health strategies leveraging reduced transmission rates to continue progress towards eliminating HIV in Australia.

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评估COVID-19对澳大利亚男男性行为者中艾滋病毒流行的影响。

目的：在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，政府实施的身体距离限制扰乱了生物行为艾滋病毒预防措施和获得医疗保健服务的机会。本研究旨在利用经验数据，利用数学模型评估COVID-19对澳大利亚男男性行为者中艾滋病毒流行的影响。设计：回顾性模型研究。方法：我们建立了一个数学模型来估计2020年1月至2022年8月期间的每月艾滋病毒感染率。我们获得了性伴侣、避孕套使用、艾滋病毒检测、暴露前预防（PrEP）使用和移民的月度汇总数据。模拟三种情景：1)新冠肺炎情景；2)无COVID-19场景，输入参数保持在COVID-19前的值；3)没有COVID-19的情景，继续扩大预防措施的规模。结果：在没有COVID-19大流行的情况下，2020年1月至2022年8月期间将发生1,263例（95%百分比区间（PI）： 88% -1,706）感染，而COVID-19情景为915例（95%百分比区间：638-1,282）（减少27.6%）。性伴侣的减少是导致艾滋病毒感染和诊断变化的主要因素（分别为-24.9%和-10.6%）。年龄≥50岁的男男性接触者（31.0%）比年轻的男男性接触者（19.9%）有更大的艾滋病新发感染减少。结论：在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，澳大利亚的新发艾滋病毒感染和诊断大幅减少，主要原因是性伴侣数量减少。这一减少突出表明，有必要制定可持续的公共卫生战略，利用降低传播率，继续在澳大利亚消除艾滋病毒方面取得进展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

AIDS 医学-病毒学

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

5.30%

发文量

478

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Publishing the very latest ground breaking research on HIV and AIDS. Read by all the top clinicians and researchers, AIDS has the highest impact of all AIDS-related journals. With 18 issues per year, AIDS guarantees the authoritative presentation of significant advances. The Editors, themselves noted international experts who know the demands of your work, are committed to making AIDS the most distinguished and innovative journal in the field. Submitted articles undergo a preliminary review by the editor. Some articles may be returned to authors without further consideration. Those being considered for publication will undergo further assessment and peer-review by the editors and those invited to do so from a reviewer pool.