Ranking the risks of India's coal phase-down: An analytical hierarchy process approach

Abstract

Phasing down coal is critical to addressing climate change. However, the deep entrenchment of coal in India's techno-economic and socio-political landscape entails severe risks. Coal currently supplies 55 % of India's primary commercial energy, generates nearly 70 % of electricity and sustains around 13 million jobs directly and indirectly. Notwithstanding these dependencies, existing research on coal phase-down in India has primarily focused on its incentives and benefits, specifically using techno-economic assessments. A critical gap lies in systematically analysing the risk associated with coal phase-down, particularly from the perspective of energy justice and policy design. This study examines the major risks of coal phase-down in India and ranks them based on severity using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and expert interviews. To accomplish this, the six major risks of coal phase-down in India were examined and ranked based on five criteria: economic, social, technological, political, and climate. The findings reveal that ‘loss of livelihoods’ is the most severe risk, followed by ‘threats to energy security’ and ‘loss of government revenue’. Though ‘technological complexity’, ‘rising import dependency’, and ‘creation of stranded assets’, emerged as significant risks, they were ranked lower in severity. Theoretically, this study contributes to energy transition scholarship by demonstrating the application of multi-criteria decision-making approaches in risk analysis, offering a replicable framework for assessing transition risks in coal-dependent economies across the Global South. Practically, it equips policymakers with a structured framework to anticipate, prioritise and mitigate transition risks, thereby informing the design of equitable and resilient phase-down strategies.