Forest greenness stability in response to climate change along forest edge–core gradients

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110850

Shaodong Huang , Rui Li , Yujie Li , Siyu Xue , Panfei Fang , Yuying Liang , Jia Wang , Longhuan Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Forest greenness and its interannual variability are key indicators for assessing ecosystem stability and climate sensitivity. Recent studies have mainly focused on the direct greening effects of afforestation and the response of greenness to climate change. However, the extent to which large-scale afforestation in China has reshaped the edge–core gradient pattern of unchanged forests (i.e., forests that remained unchanged from 2001 to 2020), as well as how climate change has influenced greenness and its stability across these horizontal gradients, remains insufficiently explored. This study investigates the relative changes in edge–core gradients of unchanged forests using China’s Annual Tree Cover Dataset (CATCD) and Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, combined with multiple linear regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. It also quantifies the contributions of various climatic factors to greenness across different gradient levels and their impacts on the stability of greenness. Our results show that the proportion of unchanged forests located >1 km from the edge increased from 13.12 % in 2001 to 25.80 % in 2020, nearly doubling, indicating improved forest connectivity due to afforestation. NDVI steadily increased with gradient distance, while the coefficient of variation of NDVI (NDVI_CV) trends was significantly negative (p < 0.05), indicating enhanced greenness stability with increasing gradient and over time. Grid-based multiple linear regression analysis revealed that temperature was the dominant factor influencing greenness within 0–2 km, with relative contributions exceeding 35 %, much higher than other factors. SHAP analysis revealed that the variation of solar radiation (SR) and the slope of the coefficient of variation of solar radiation (CVSR_Slope) was the most important factor affecting NDVI_CV variability across all gradients. Our study highlights the shaping effect of afforestation on forest spatial gradients and its indirect impact on greening, emphasizing the key roles of temperature and radiation in driving greenness and stability across forest gradients.

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森林边缘-核心梯度对气候变化的响应

森林绿化率及其年际变率是评价生态系统稳定性和气候敏感性的关键指标。近年来的研究主要集中在植树造林的直接绿化效应和绿化对气候变化的响应。然而，中国大规模造林在多大程度上重塑了未变化森林（即2001 - 2020年未变化的森林）的边缘-核心梯度格局，以及气候变化如何影响这些水平梯度上的绿化率及其稳定性，仍未得到充分探讨。利用中国年度树木覆盖数据集（CATCD）和归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据，结合多元线性回归和SHapley加性解释（SHAP）分析，研究了未变化森林边缘-核心梯度的相对变化。定量分析了不同梯度水平上各种气候因子对绿化率的贡献及其对绿化率稳定性的影响。结果表明，距离边缘1 km的未变化森林比例从2001年的13.12%增加到2020年的25.80%，增加了近一倍，表明森林连通性因植树造林而得到改善。NDVI随梯度距离的增加而稳步增加，NDVI变化系数（NDVI_CV）趋势呈显著负相关（p < 0.05），表明绿度稳定性随梯度的增加和时间的延长而增强。基于网格的多元线性回归分析表明，温度是影响0 ~ 2 km范围内绿化的主导因子，相对贡献率超过35%，远高于其他因子。SHAP分析显示，太阳辐射（SR）的变化和太阳辐射变异系数（CVSR_Slope）的斜率是影响各梯度NDVI_CV变异的最重要因素。我们的研究强调了造林对森林空间梯度的塑造作用及其对绿化的间接影响，强调了温度和辐射在森林梯度中驱动绿化和稳定性的关键作用。

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来源期刊

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.70%

发文量

415

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural and Forest Meteorology is an international journal for the publication of original articles and reviews on the inter-relationship between meteorology, agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Emphasis is on basic and applied scientific research relevant to practical problems in the field of plant and soil sciences, ecology and biogeochemistry as affected by weather as well as climate variability and change. Theoretical models should be tested against experimental data. Articles must appeal to an international audience. Special issues devoted to single topics are also published. Typical topics include canopy micrometeorology (e.g. canopy radiation transfer, turbulence near the ground, evapotranspiration, energy balance, fluxes of trace gases), micrometeorological instrumentation (e.g., sensors for trace gases, flux measurement instruments, radiation measurement techniques), aerobiology (e.g. the dispersion of pollen, spores, insects and pesticides), biometeorology (e.g. the effect of weather and climate on plant distribution, crop yield, water-use efficiency, and plant phenology), forest-fire/weather interactions, and feedbacks from vegetation to weather and the climate system.